Sleepers and nightmares

Who are the sleepers in the tournament? Which teams will have a nightmare of a tournament?

In the sleeper category, I think Mexico, Serbia and Chile will be pleasant surprises. Conversely, Portugal, Germany, and Italy will disappoint.

In World Cup history, Germany and Italy have always done well even though they have not always had the best team. Somehow they have found ways to win even when not playing well. In both Germany and Italy there seems to be a culture of success so that when the team advances into the later stages of the tournament and the pressure starts to build, these teams have always responded positively and embraced the challenges. This year, I am doubtful, however, that Germany and Italy will repeat their historic success. First of all, they are not playing in Europe where these teams have had most of their victories. Second, the Italian team is one of the oldest teams in the tournament and I am not sure if playing in the high altitudes of South Africa will help them. Third, the German team will miss Michael Ballack´s leadership and energy. Other key players such as Rene Adler and Heiko Westermann are also hurt. Even the legendary Franz Beckenbauer does not think that Germany will advance late into the tournament. So 2010 will not be the year that the World Cup trophy returns to Italy or Germany.

Portugal is in an impossible group (Brazil, Ivory Coast and North Korea). It will lose to Brazil and their game with the Ivory Coast will be tight. But I think that the Ivory Coasters will prevail. The Ivory Coast has a very talented team that is experienced. Its members play at some of the best teams in Europe. So I doubt that Portugal will make it into the round of 16.