Spain Holland

I predicted this would be the final game before the tournament started. These are two good teams and deserve to be in the final. In my view, the Spanish achilles heel is their left back, Carpevilla, who has to face and cover the most dangerous Dutch player, Robben. I expect that the Dutch try to capitalize on that weakness and send many balls down the right wing.

But the game will come down to the play of Spain's Xavi, Iniesta, and Villa. Their short passing and penetrating runs, backed by the intelligent play of Xabi Alonso, will create nightmares for the Dutch midfield who are more physical and not as fast. The Dutch may get an early goal but I predict that Spain will score two goals and eventually win 2-1. I will be rooting for the Dutch but I think the Spaniards are just too good for Holland.

Benni and I will be on a traditional Turkish boat called a gulet sailing somewhere in the Mediterranean Sea. We do not know at this point if there is a tv on the boat or whether we can dock to see the game. So there is a chance we'll miss the finals after having followed the tournament closely so far.

Semi Finals

Benni and I watched the semi-finals in the Cappadocia region in Turkey which is in the central part of the country. The landscape is highly unusual and this is where the early christians built underground cities to protect themselves from Roman persecutions.

The Holland-Uruguay game was a pretty good game. I had predicted 3-1 for Holland but the Uruguayans scored in injury time to make it 3-2. The Dutch are a very strong and well-balanced side. They have had some lucky breaks so perhaps this is the year they will go all the way.

The game between Spain and Germany was not as exciting as was expected. The Spaniards slowed down the game with the flurry of short passes that had the Germans playing catch up the whole game. It was a shame that Muller had to sit this one out because he would have opened up the game for Germany. Podolsky played in a defensive role and it was basically only Ozil how threatened the Spaniards up front. The Germans can be very happy with the tournament and be optimistic about their future.

Amazing Quarterfinals and Incredible Germans

The Quarterfinal matches were exciting and incredibly dramatic. It is a good thing that I do not suffer from a weak heart condition while watching the end of the Uruguay-Ghana game or Spain-Paraguay. The other two games were upsets even though I had predicted that the Dutch would prevail. I predicted three of the four matches correctly so I feel pretty good about myself.

The Germans proved me wrong, however. I should have listened to my cousin Gunnar Már who predicted that the Germans would go all the way this year. After seeing them dismantle both England and Argentina, I wonder how the German speed and counter-attack will match up against Spain, who possess the ball brilliantly and play back and forth. The Spanish are fairly slow at the back (Picque and Puyol are not the fastest) and the Spanish forwards (aside from Torres) are short and will struggle against the tall German defenders. That said, I think the Spaniards will frustrate the young German side. The Spaniards will be patient and nibble at the German defense and eventually find an opening. Torres is a shade of his former self and the Spaniards definitely need more of a presence in the middle. My prediction is a 1-0 Spanish victory.

I really do think that the referee should have allowed the Ghanaian goal against Uruguay. The ball was basically inside the goal when Suarez made the save with his hand. The Uruguayans unfairly benefitted from the play. Of course, Suarez did get the red card and will miss the game against Holland (he plays for Ajax in Holland so this would have been a great game for him to play). Therefore, Uruguay´s chances are quite slim. I predict a Holland victory 3-1.

Currently in Istanbul and have been enjoying the sights, sounds, and smells of this charming city. Staying at a hotel in Taksim Square near the bustling Istiklal Street, which is a major shopping street. When we first walked down Istiklal, we thought that there was some major holiday or celebration because the streets were so crowded. But it was just a normal Friday afternoon. We also visited the Sultan Ahmed area and toured the Hagia Sophia. We watched the Germany Argentina game with a former Williams student Toygun Altintas, class of 2008, who is currently living in Turkey after finishing his masters degree from the University of Chicago.

Last Day in South Africa

Benni and I leave South Africa this afternoon. We have had a fantastic stay and a very memorable visit. I have been very impressed with what South Africa has to offer and would definitely come back if given the opportunity.

We leave for Istanbul and will spend the next two weeks in Turkey. I will continue blogging but the blog entries will be less frequent.

Upcoming games and Predictions

The quarter finals will be very exciting with some classic match ups! Here are my predictions:

Uruguay-Ghana

We saw Uruguay play against South Korea. The Uruguyans have two attacking studs - Forlan and Suarez and their defense is formidable. Two of the Ghanaian players (Ayew and Mensah) picked up yellow cards against the US and will miss this game. Even though most of the people at the stadium will be rooting for Ghana, I think Uruguay will prevail. Uruguay had a easy time with South Africa in the qualifying rounds even though the whole stadium was rooting for the Bafana Bafana. I predict a 1-0 victory for Uruguay.

Brazil-Netherlands

It is too bad that these teams are meeting in the quarterfinals since both teams deserve to be at least in the semifinals. Both teams have been criticized back in their homes for being boring and workmanlike. They are not playing with the same sort of flair that has characterized these teams in the past.

Generally it is foolish to pick against the Brazilians in any World Cup game. But this time, I will go with the Oranje. The Dutch have a well-balanced team. They have a good combination of strong holding midfields (De Jong and Van Bommel) and strong attacking players (Robben, Sneijder, and Persie). Robben will give the Brazilians a lot of trouble. I predict a 2-1 classic Dutch victory.

Germany - Argentina

Wow! These have been the two most entertaining teams in this year's World Cup. The German team has surprised me with their flair and open style of play. The commentators here have made much ado about the fact that this team represents the "new Germany", similar to how people talked about the French team in 1998. They point out that many of the stars on this team are immigrants or second generation Germans. For example, the team features players of Polish, Ghanaian, Turkish, and Tunisian descent. Perhaps people are making a big deal of the ethnic composition of the team because it is Germany. Yet we do not hear the same about the British, American, or French teams. Those who make these comments have obviously not been to Germany recently. Nevertheless, this team does not play like the German teams of old. They have a very good young goalie, a solid defense, exceptional midfielders, and two forwards who tend to score in big games. Ozil is really emerging as one of the stars of the tournament.

Yet this promising and young German team is no match for Argentina. Argentina is on a roll. They have great team spirit and their attacking trio (Tevez, Messi, and Higuain) is one for the ages. I think Argentina will win 3-1.

Spain - Paraguay

Spain is lucky to be meeting Paraguay at this stage. This will be an easy victory for Spain. In addition to their outstanding players, it is remarkable that Spain has only picked up one card in this whole tournament (Alonso got a yellow card against Portugal). So they play exceptionally well and they are also very clean! Spain wins 2-0.

Portugal Spain

We were happy with the results of the game but the game itself was not that exciting. The Portuguese had a few chances to score but the Spaniards totally dominated the game. It says a lot about the Spanish team that both Silva and Fabregas do not make the starting 11.

Seeing the Spanish team play live it is clear that they are a very organized team that is full of self confidence. Their central defenders, Puyol and Picque, do not mark the opposing forwards but play more of a zone defense. For example, in the Portugal game they allowed Ronaldo to roam freely and did not shadow him. They managed, however, to completely close Ronaldo down and he was a non-factor in the game.

Xavi is the bread and butter of the team. The local papers here call him the Einstein of the team since everything starts and ends with him. I would agree with that but Busquets also plays a much more central role in the team than I realized. He typically picked up the ball from the defenders and started the attack. Xavi would then eventually take over the ball. So if Xavi is the Einstein of the team, Busquets is Bohr. Watching the Spanish team play, however, raised some questions about their ability to score. They are great with the ball covering about 90% of the field but need someone to finish. They really only play with one true center forward - Torres.

Torres is still far from his usual self and was subbed with about 30 minutes left. His replacement Loriento was much more dangerous. So who will score the Spanish goals? David Villa had some great runs and Iniesta roams all over the field so they certainly have players that score. But they need that player to score the simple put in. I still think they have a good chance to win it all.

I was surprised by the number of Spanish supporters at the game. We had been told that the Portuguese fans would dominate. There was an awful lot of yellow at the game. Perhaps most of the neutral supporters were rooting for Spain.

It was our final game here at the World Cup. We had great seats and enjoyed ourselves tremendously. Afterwards, we had dinner on Long Street. In order to celebrate the Spanish victory, we decided to do what the Spaniards do - have dinner at midnight.

My friend Kiddi and his kids left for Iceland yesterday. We had dinner with Willams student Faisal Khan last night.

Dot Com

One of the things that has surprised us attending these games is how commercialized the World Cup has become. I guess one shouldn´t have been so surprised given how professional sports have developed over the last decades. But we have been taken aback by the level of commercialization. We have asked ourselves whether the purpose of the tournment is to promote and celebrate soccer worldwide and to determine which country has the best national team or whether it is merely a cashmaking machine for FIFA, the world soccer association. Of course, the FIFA website ends in dot com and not dot org which suggests the orientation of this company.

FIFA is very concerned with its brand and operates as a franchise similar to McDonalds or Subway. For example, we went to the Fanfest here in Cape Town yesterday and it was all about promoting Coca Cola, Sony, or Hyundai, FIFA´s main corporat sponsors.. There was very little at the FanFest to suggest that we were in Africa or in Cape Town. It was a standard, sterlie environment. We saw a live camera shot from the FanFest in Brazil and it look exactly like the one in Cape Town. When we were at the Stadium in Port Elizabeth, all the stalls and vendors looked exactly the same as in Cape Town. It would have been much more interesting and worthwhile to allow local vendors to sell their merchandize and food at the stadiums.

Yesterday, we went on touristy boat ride from Hout Bay to Seal Island. It was an hour boat ride to see some seals sunbathing. It was a ripoff and our only disappointment in this trip. In the afternoon, we went swimming in the sea (the weather was pretty good). Last night, we went to Long Street, which has lots of restaurants and trendy clothes stores. We went to a local culinary institution called Mama Africa which was great. It had live music (a great marimba band) and the menu featured "ethnic food" such as grilled ostrich, springbok or crocodile. A bit touristy but the atmosphere was great and the place was packed even though it was a Monday night. We are going to return there tonight after the game. We watched the Brazil Chile game there. We started chatting with two women sitting next to our table who were from Tanzania. They were on a business trip in Cape Town. As it turns out, one of them studied at Williams College at the Center for Development Economics! Quite the coincidence! She graduated in 2000 and will return to Williamstown in October for the 50th anniversary of CDE. We know a lot of people in common after her year in Williamstown.

Today, we are going to Spain Portugal. The weather is miserable. It is windy and rainy and the forecast calls for more rain. But we have great seats and this should be a cracker of a game. We bought Spanish flags yesterday and Benni will be wearing the Spanish team shirt. People predict though that the audience will be 80% Portuguese and 20% Spanish. Supposedly there is a huge Portuguese community here in Cape Town and they are coming out in droves for this game. I predict Spain will win in an attacking game.